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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.